Middle Tennessee Housing Market Snapshot: September 2026

Middle Tennessee Housing Market Snapshot: September 2026

Oct. 6, 2026   ·   Local guidance from Team Romines at Keller Williams Realty | Middle Tennessee

Middle Tennessee closed September with more homes on the market and slightly higher prices. Across the ten-county Realtracs set — Davidson, Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, Maury, Montgomery, Robertson, Dickson, and Cheatham — active inventory averaged 14,249, up 8% from a year earlier. Months of supply was 5.41, up from 4.87. Closings were 3,073, down 4%. The median sale price was $444,169, up 2%. The average sale price was $631,993, up 5%.

Buyers have more choice. Sellers still get paid when the launch price matches recent closings. New listings fell 19%, so inventory stopped climbing because fewer owners listed, not because buyers cleared the board. Under-contract inventory fell 4%, which points to a thinner closing calendar in October and November.

Team Romines at Keller Williams Realty serves buyers and sellers across Columbia, Spring Hill, Thompson’s Station, Franklin, Maury County, and greater Middle Tennessee. We price to the closed file in the band, not to the active-list average.

Metric	Sep 2025	Sep 2026	Change
New listings	6,687	5,441	−19%
New under contract	3,004	2,927	−3%
Active inventory (avg)	13,141	14,249	+8%
Under contract inventory (avg)	5,361	5,134	−4%
Total inventory	18,502	19,382	+5%
Closings	3,205	3,073	−4%
Median sale price	$437,000	$444,169	+2%
Average sale price	$601,444	$631,993	+5%
Avg days on market (closed)	33	38	+14%
Avg list price (active)	$770,000	$798,364	+4%
List to contract (avg days)	57	63	+10%
Contract to closed (avg days)	46	45	−3%
List to closed (avg days)	101	102	+1%
Months of supply	4.87	5.41	+11%

Source: Realtracs MLS, ten-county residential, September 2026, compiled October 4–5, 2026.

The median rose 2%, to $444,169. The average rose 5%, to $631,993. Higher-price sales, especially in Williamson, still lift the average. The active list average was $798,364, well above what closed. That gap is the seller mistake to avoid. A launch near the ask sheet is not a launch near the September closings.

List-to-contract time rose to 63 days from 57 and has lengthened every month since July. Once under contract, files still closed in about 45 days. The delay is before the contract, not after it.

Maury County closed 184 sales at a $422,998 median and a $522,514 average. Days on market averaged 38. Months of supply was 5.45, close to the regional 5.41 and tighter than Davidson at 6.46.

Williamson was the price outlier: 397 closings, a $950,000 median, and 5.33 months of supply. Rutherford was tighter at 4.91 months and a $422,940 median, almost the same median as Maury on more than twice the closings. Wilson was the tightest of the ten at 4.22 months and a $499,900 median. One regional headline is not one market.

Shop the band. A Maury sale near $423,000 is a different negotiation from a Williamson sale near $950,000 or a Davidson listing in a 6.46-month pocket. Use the extra inventory. Keep the inspection. New contracts fell 3%, so a clean file still matters, but waiving protections to win is usually unnecessary at 5.41 months of supply.

If you are comparing Columbia, Spring Hill, and Mount Pleasant, pull the last 90 days of closed comps in that price band before a second weekend of tours. A seller credit or rate buydown can matter as much as a small price cut while quotes sit in the mid-7% area.

Price to September closings, not to the $798,364 active average. New-listing volume is already down 19%. A photo-ready house at the comp number can stand out. A test price will not, because buyers can see 14,249 active homes.

If showings are thin after 10 to 14 days, the search filter is the problem. Cross a round number. If showings are fine and offers are thin, a closing-cost credit often fixes the payment faster than a second small cut after the listing already looks stale.

Rochelle and Andrew Romines work with buyers and sellers across Columbia and greater Middle Tennessee. On a month like this, that usually means:

•  Pricing a launch to the last 90 days of closed comps, not the active-list average

•  Separating a Maury band near $423,000 from a slower higher band in the same county

•  Writing offers that keep the inspection and still compete on certainty

•  Flagging when a credit or buydown will move the payment more than another price cut

•  Timing a sale and a purchase so neither contract is a surprise to the other

Is Middle Tennessee a buyer’s market in September 2026?

At 5.41 months of supply, many bands favor negotiation. Davidson at 6.46 months gives buyers more room. Wilson at 4.22 months is tighter. Homes priced at recent comps still closed.

Are prices falling?

Not on this regional cut. The median rose 2% to $444,169. The average rose 5%. Maury’s September median was $422,998. Outcome still depends on the comp set.

Did inventory surge because everyone listed?

No. New listings fell 19% to 5,441. Active inventory rose 8% because closings and new contracts did not clear the standing set.

Will October be busier?

Under-contract inventory fell 4% to 5,134. That usually means fewer closings in October and November, not a sudden rush.

September was a more selective market, not a crash. Supply is 5.41 months. The regional median is $444,169. Maury closed at $422,998. Sellers who price to those closings can still contract. Sellers who price to the $798,364 active average are the ones stretching list-to-contract toward 63 days.

Team Romines at Keller Williams Realty

Rochelle Romines — 941.773.4542 — rromines@kw.com

Andrew Romines — 931.922.6711 — aromines@kw.com

www.rochelleromines.com

1507 Nashville Hwy, Suite C, Columbia, TN 38401

Call us to walk the September comps before you write an offer or set a list price.

Disclaimer

This article is for general education only and is not a guarantee of price, timing, or financing. Figures are ten-county residential Realtracs for September 2026, compiled October 4–5, 2026. Market data changes monthly. Verify the current listing before you write an offer or set a price. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Posted in Market Updates, Real Estate News, Community News